EUR/CHF's down trend extended further to as low as 1.3457 last week, just inch above mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.4002 from 1.4587 at 1.3451. Initial bias remains on the downside this week as long as 1.3626 minor resistance holds. Sustained trading below 1.3451 will pave the way to next key level at 1.3. On the upside, considering the possibility of bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.3626 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and will bring stronger rebound to 1.3733/4039 resistance zone before extending the down trend again.
In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF's down trend from 2007 high of 1.6827 is still in healthy state as it's trading well below 55 weeks EMA. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984, which is close to 1.3 psychological level. On the upside, break of 1.4039 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.