Despite diving to 1.3341 last week, EUR/CHF quickly rebounded and the development suggests that recovery from 1.3072 is still in progress. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 1.3674 resistance and above. However strong resistance should be seen inside 1.3733/4039 resistance to limit upside and bring medium term fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.3341 will indicate that recovery from 1.3072 is completed and will flip bias back to the downside for 1.3072 and below.

In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF's down trend from 2007 high of 1.6827 is still in progress and accelerated after breaking out 1.4315 support. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984, which is close to 1.3 psychological level. On the upside, break of 1.4002 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.