EUR/CHF rose further to as high as 1.3817 last week but faced strong resistance inside 1.3733/4039 zone and reversed. The development suggests that whole recovery from 1.30723 has completed at 1.3817 already. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside for 1.3341 support first. Break will confirm this bearish case and indicate recent down trend has resumed for 1.3 psychological level. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd continue to focus on reversal signal inside 1.3733/4039 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF's down trend from 2007 high of 1.6827 is still in progress and accelerated after breaking out 1.4315 support. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984, which is close to 1.3 psychological level. On the upside, break of 1.4002 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.

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