EUR/CHF's decline from 1.3923 extended further last week and the development is inline with our view that longer term down trend is resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.3072 first and then 1.3 psychological level. On the upside, above 1.3255 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited by 1.3455 resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3923 should be resuming long term down trend from 2007 high of 1.6872. Such decline is expected to target 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 next, which is close to 1.3 psychological level. Decisive break there will pave the way to next medium term target of 161.8% projection of 1.6368 to 1.4315 from 1.5138 at 1.1816. On the upside, break of 1.3923 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984. Break will target 138.2% projection at 1.1516.

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