EUR/CHF's down trend resumed by taking out 1.1404 support and dropped to new record low of 1.1295 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside and current fall should now target 100% projection of 1.2344 to 1.1404 from 1.1891 at 1.0951 next, which is also close to 161.8% projection of 1.3833 to 1.2399 from 1.3243 at 1.0923. On the upside, above 1.1422 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited well below 1.1891 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6827 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2399 support turned resistance holds. Next target will be 161.8% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.0609. Nevertheless, break of 1.2399 will be the first sign of bottoming and should bring stronger rebound to 1.3243 resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. The is some sign of re-acceleration as seen in weekly MACD and break of 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516 will target 161.8% projection at 1.0609.

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