EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | August 06 2011 9:43 AM

EUR/CHF extended recent down trend last week and made another record low at 1.0707. It's possibly losing some downside momentum for the moment, but further decline is still expected as long as 1.1148 minor resistance holds. Current down trend should continue to 161.8% projection of 1.2344 to 1.1404 from 1.1891 at 1.0372 next. On the upside, though, note that break of 1.1148 resistance will suggest short term bottoming and will bring lengthier consolidations before resuming the down trend.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6827 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2399 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 200% projection of 1.3833 to 1.2399 from 1.3243 at 1.0375. Nevertheless, break of 1.2399 will be the first sign of bottoming and should bring stronger rebound to 1.3243 resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. The is some sign of re-acceleration as seen in weekly MACD and break of 161.8% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.0609 and break will target 200% projection at 0.9141.