EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | August 14 2011 10:45 AM

After diving to new record low at 1.0061, EUR/CHF rebounded stronger as the Swiss Franc staged a broad based reversal on SNB's comments. A short term bottom is formed at 1.0061 and more consolidation should be seen above there in near term. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 1.1891 to 1.0061 at 1.1192 and possibly above. But we'd expect upside to be contained below 1.1404 and bring reversal to extend the consolidations from 1.0061. Below 1.0685 minor support will flip bias to the downside. But strong support should be seen above 1.0061 at first attempt.

In the bigger picture, while 1.0061 is a short term bottom, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Whole down trend from 1.6827 (2007 high) is still in progress. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1404 resistance holds and we'd expect an eventual break of parity. Nevertheless, note that a break of 1.1404 resistance will argue that 1.0061 could indeed be a medium term bottom and stronger rebound might then be seen back to 1.2399/3243 resistance zone.

In the long term picture, the long term down trend from 1.6827, which is part of the multi-decade decline from 1993 high of 1.8234, is still in progress and has just met 161.8% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.0609. We will not consider the possibility of reversal before seeing a pattern or before a break of 1.2399 resistance. The down trend is expected to extend to 200% projection at 0.9141 next.