EUR/CHF continued to gyrate inside range of 1.6076/1.5280 last week without making any progress. As noted before, risk remains on the downside with 1.5238 resistance intact and another fall cannot be ruled out. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 1.5007 key support to complete the fall from 1.5364 and bring strong rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 1.5238 will indicate that fall from 1.5364 has finally completed and will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5364/5446 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, firstly, price actions from 1.5446 are treated as consolidation to rise from 1.4577 only and such rise is expected to resume sooner or later to test 1.5880 resistance. Secondly, the corrective structure of the fall from 1.5880 to 1.4577 indicates that it's a correction to medium term rise from 1.4315. Rise from 1.4577 is tentatively treated as resumption of rally from 1.4315. Hence we're expecting an eventual break of 1.5880 as rise from 1.4315 resumes. In other words, we're favoring the case that long term down trend from 1.6826 has completed at 1.4315 already. We'll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5007 support remains intact.

In the long term picture, outlook is rather mixed for the moment. On the one hand, the corrective three wave structure of the rise from 1.4391 to 1.6827 is arguing that fall from 1.6827 is resumption of long term down trend from 1.8234. The pattern of lower highs since 1.6826 gives no indication that such fall has completed yet. On the other hand, the failure to sustain below 1.4391 (01 low) and the lack of impulsive structure of fall from 1.6827 is not confirming the bearish case. Focus will be on the development of the rebound from 1.4315 for further hints.

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF