EUR/CHF continues to engage in choppy sideway trading last week. Recent choppy fall should still continue as long as near term trend line resistance holds (now at 1.5128). A break below 1.5706 will target 1.5007 key support next. But after all, downside is expected to be contained above this 1.5007 support and bring strong rebound. On the upside, above the trend line resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5238 resistance. Break there will indicate that recent consolidations has possibly completed and will bring retest of 1.5364/5446 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, firstly, price actions from 1.5446 are treated as consolidation to rise from 1.4577 only and such rise is expected to resume sooner or later to test 1.5880 resistance. Secondly, the corrective structure of the fall from 1.5880 to 1.4577 indicates that it's a correction to medium term rise from 1.4315. Rise from 1.4577 is tentatively treated as resumption of rally from 1.4315. Hence we're expecting an eventual break of 1.5880 as rise from 1.4315 resumes. In other words, we're favoring the case that long term down trend from 1.6826 has completed at 1.4315 already. We'll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5007 support remains intact.

In the long term picture, outlook is rather mixed for the moment. On the one hand, the corrective three wave structure of the rise from 1.4391 to 1.6827 is arguing that fall from 1.6827 is resumption of long term down trend from 1.8234. The pattern of lower highs since 1.6826 gives no indication that such fall has completed yet. On the other hand, the failure to sustain below 1.4391 (01 low) and the lack of impulsive structure of fall from 1.6827 is not confirming the bearish case. Focus will be on the development of the rebound from 1.4315 for further hints.

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF