EUR/CHF managed to crawl higher to 1.5133 last week and managed to sustain above the near term falling trend line resistance. However, upside momentum is rather unconvincing with mild bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. Also, after all, it's still kept below 1.5145 resistance. Hence, we'd stay neutral for the moment and won't rule out further choppy sideway trading between 1.5007 and 1.5145. A break below 1.5094 will argue that recovery from 1.5010 has completed and flip intraday bias to the downside. Nevertheless, firstly, we'd expect 1.5007 support to hold in case of another fall. Secondly, break of 1.5145 resistance will argue that recent choppy fall has completed and target 1.5238 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, firstly, price actions from 1.5446 are treated as consolidation to rise from 1.4577 only and such rise is expected to resume sooner or later to test 1.5880 resistance. Secondly, the corrective structure of the fall from 1.5880 to 1.4577 indicates that it's a correction to medium term rise from 1.4315. Rise from 1.4577 is tentatively treated as resumption of rally from 1.4315. Hence we're expecting an eventual break of 1.5880 as rise from 1.4315 resumes. In other words, we're favoring the case that long term down trend from 1.6826 has completed at 1.4315 already. We'll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5007 support remains intact.
In the long term picture, outlook is rather mixed for the moment. On the one hand, the corrective three wave structure of the rise from 1.4391 to 1.6827 is arguing that fall from 1.6827 is resumption of long term down trend from 1.8234. The pattern of lower highs since 1.6826 gives no indication that such fall has completed yet. On the other hand, the failure to sustain below 1.4391 (01 low) and the lack of impulsive structure of fall from 1.6827 is not confirming the bearish case. Focus will be on the development of the rebound from 1.4315 for further hints.
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