EUR/GBP jumped to as high as 0.8671 last week before forming a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for deeper retreat, possibly to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.8543). But downside should be contained by 0.8497 resistance turned support and bring another rise. As noted before, the break of 0.8646 resistance indicates that fall from 0.8940 has finished with three waves down to 0.8284 already. Above 0.8671 will target medium term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.8818) next.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8646 resistance suggests that fall from 0.8940 is finished with three waves down to 0.8646. The corrective structure in turn indicates that rise from 0.8067 is still in progress for another high above 0.8940. Also, it revives the case that whole medium term correction from 2008 high of 0.9799 has completed at 0.8067 already. Focus will now turn to 0.8940 resistance for more evidence. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support will invalidate this view and turn focus back to 0.8067 support.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

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