EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | February 06 2011 1:35 PM

EUR/GBP's fall from 0.8671 accelerated to as low as 0.8422 last week and the strong break of 0.8497 support suggests that rebound from 0.8284 is completed. The three wave structure suggests that such rebound is merely a correction. In other words, decline from 0.8940 is not over yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.8284/8331 support zone first. Break will target a 0.8067 low again. On the upside, above 0.8509 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.8671 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development revives that case that rebound from 0.8067 has finished with three waves up to 0.8940 after hitting medium term trend line resistance. The development indicates that whole fall from 2008 high of 0.9799, which is treated a correction to the larger up trend, is not finished yet. Another low below 0.8067 could be seen ahead. Nevertheless, we'd continue to look for reversal signal inside 0.7693/8186 support zone.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

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