EUR/GBP rose further to 0.8786 last week but lost momentum ahead of 0.8795 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some sideway trading could be seen first. Note that while another rise cannot be ruled out, we'd maintain that outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8795 resistance holds and the whole decline from 0.9083 is still in favor to continue lower. Below 0.8687 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8529 first. Nevertheless, break of 0.8795 will dampen the bearish view and turn focus back to 0.8884 key near term resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 (2008) should be unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term up trend. The first leg is completed with three waves down to 0.8067. Second leg should also be finished at 0.9083. Fall from 0.9083 is treated as the third leg and should target 0.8067 first and possibly further to 61.8% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8067 from 0.9083 at 0.8013 (which is closes to 0.8 psychological level). Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 0.7693/8186 support zone to contain downside to finish off the consolidation. On the upside, break of 0.8884 resistance is needed to invalidate this view or we'll stay bearish now.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

/

/

/

/