EUR/GBP recovered to 0.8664 last week but faced strong resistance from 55 days EMA and reversed Subsequent fall and break of 0.8557 minor support suggest that such recovery from 0.8485 is finished. Also, the corrective structure is in line with the bearish view that recent fall from 0.9083 is not over. Initial bias is mildly cautiously on the downside this week for test on 0.8485 first. Break will confirm resumption of recent decline and should target 100% projection of 0.9083 to 0.8529 from 0.8830 at 0.8276 next. On the upside, above 0.8619 minor resistance will dampen this immediate bearish view and would turn bias back to the upside for 0.8664 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 (2008 high) should be unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term up trend. The first leg is completed with three waves down to 0.8067. Second leg should also be finished at 0.9083. Fall from 0.9083 is treated as the third leg and should target 0.8067 first and possibly further to 61.8% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8067 from 0.9083 at 0.8013 (which is closes to 0.8 psychological level). Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 0.7693/8186 support zone to contain downside to finish off the consolidation. On the upside, break of 0.8830 resistance, however, will invalidate this view and argue that the choppy rise from 0.8067 is still in progress for another high above 0.9083 before completion.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

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