EUR/GBP's strong break of of 0.8814 resistance and sustained trading above the near term falling trend line revived the case that fall from 0.9410 is already completed with three waves down to 0.8601. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen towards 0.9053 (161.8% projection of 0.8601 to 0.8841 from 0.8662 at 0.9050) next. One the downside, below 0.8866 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained above 0.8749 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, the main question is on whether the correction from 0.9799 is finished at 0.8399, or it is still unfolding as a larger consolidation pattern. Also, if the consolidation is still in progress, what pattern would it be. In any case, we'd expect long term up trend to resume for another high above 0.9799 eventually after completing the current medium term consolidation. Break of 0.9410 resistance will be an early signal that the long term up trend is resuming and will turn focus to 0.9799 high.
In the long term picture, current development suggests correction from 0.9799 is still in progress and the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 is not ready to resume yet. Nevertheless, correction from 0.9799 is expected to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to continue to 261.8% projection of 0.5680 to 0.7258 from 0.6535 at 1.0666 eventually.