EUR/GBP edged lower to 0.8495 last week but failed to sustain loss and recovered ahead of 0.8485 resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week. But considering that EUR/GBP is trading below both falling 55 days and 55 weeks EMA, we'd stay cautiously bearish for a test on 0.8485 support. Break there will confirm resumption of whole decline from 0.9083 and should target 100% projection of 0.9083 to 0.8529 from 0.8830 at 0.8276. Though, break of 0.8612 will dampen this immediate bearish view and would extend the consolidation pattern from 0.8485 for another rise through 0.8664 resistance before eventual down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 (2008 high) should be unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term up trend. The first leg is completed with three waves down to 0.8067. Second leg should also be finished at 0.9083. Fall from 0.9083 is treated as the third leg and should target 0.8067 first and possibly further to 61.8% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8067 from 0.9083 at 0.8013 (which is closes to 0.8 psychological level). Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 0.7693/8186 support zone to contain downside to finish off the consolidation. On the upside, break of 0.8830 resistance, however, will invalidate this view and argue that the choppy rise from 0.8067 is still in progress for another high above 0.9083 before completion.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

/

/

/

/