EUR/GBP dived to as low as 0.8067 last week but rebounded strongly since then. A short term bottom should be in place and some more recovery would likely be seen initially this week. Though, note that there is no indication of reversal before a break of 0.8381 resistance and another fall would still be seen. Below 0.8165 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.8067 will target 100% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8399 from 0.9410 at 0.8010, which is close to 0.8 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, while EUR/GBP's fall was a bit deeper than we thought, there is no change in the view that fall from 0.9799 is a correction in the larger up trend only, in form of three waves. Strong support is still expected in 0.7693/8186 support zone to conclude the correction. Hence, focus will remain on reversal signal inside this zone. Note mild bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, break of 0.8381 resistance will be the first sign of reversal and will turn focus to 0.8601 resistance for more evidence.

In the long term picture, current development suggests correction from 0.9799 is still in progress and the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 is not ready to resume yet. Nevertheless, correction from 0.9799 is expected to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP