EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | March 24 2012 8:24 AM

Despite dipping to 0.8283 initially last week, EUR/GBP quickly recovered and price actions remained indecisive. Nonetheless, near term outlook remains unchanged. Corrective rise from 0.8221 is likely finished with three waves up to 0.8505 and fall from there is still in progress. Below 0.8283 will target a test on 0.8221 low first. Break will confirm resumption of whole decline from 0.9083 and should target 61.8% projection of 0.8830 to 0.8221 from 0.8505 at 0.8129. On the upside, beak of 0.8423 is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 0.8505. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 are treated as a consolidation pattern in the long term up trend. Fall from 0.9083 is viewed as the third leg and could extend to 61.8% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8067 from 0.9083 at 0.8013 (which is close to 0.8 psychological level). We'd expect strong support inside 0.7693/8186 support zone, possibly near to 61.8% retracement of 0.6535 to 0.9799 at 0.7782 to contain downside to finish off the consolidation. On the upside, though, break of 0.9083 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the whole pattern from 0.9799. Otherwise, there will also be risk of another fall even in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

EUR/GBP