EUR/GBP recovered further to 0.8395 last week but lost momentum again since then and weakened. After all, with 0.8423 resistance intact, we're holding on to the bearish view. That is, corrective rise from 0.8221 is finished with three waves up to 0.8505 and the larger decline from 0.9083 is resuming. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 0.8283 first. Break will confirm resumption of fall from 0.8505 and should target a test on 0.8221 low next. But, break of 0.8423 will dampen this bearish view and indicate that rebound from 0.8221 is possibly still in progress for another above 0.8505 before completion.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 are treated as a consolidation pattern in the long term up trend. Fall from 0.9083 is viewed as the third leg and could extend to 61.8% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8067 from 0.9083 at 0.8013 (which is close to 0.8 psychological level). We'd expect strong support inside 0.7693/8186 support zone, possibly near to 61.8% retracement of 0.6535 to 0.9799 at 0.7782 to contain downside to finish off the consolidation. On the upside, though, break of 0.9083 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the whole pattern from 0.9799. Otherwise, there will also be risk of another fall even in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.