EUR/GBP dropped to as low as 0.8161 last week and the break of 0.8221 confirmed resumption of whole decline from 0.9803. Some consolidation might be seen above 0.8161 temporary low this week first. But recovery should be limited below 0.8276 and bring fall resumption to 61.8% projection of 0.8830 to 0.8221 from 0.8505 at 0.8129, and then 0.8067 support.

In the bigger picture, long term consolidation pattern from 0.9799 is still in progress with fall from 0.9083 as the third leg. Decline from 0.9083 is still in progress and would target 61.8% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8067 from 0.9083 at 0.8013 (which is close to 0.8 psychological level). After all, we'd expect strong support inside 0.7693/8186 support zone, possibly near to 61.8% retracement of 0.6535 to 0.9799 at 0.7782 to contain downside to finish off the consolidation. On the upside, break of 0.8505 resistance will argue that fall from 0.9083 is finished. In that case, EUR/GBP could have either started another leg inside the consolidation pattern, or resuming the larger up trend.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

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