EUR/GBP's down trend continued last week and dropped to as low as 0.7855 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.8505 to 0.7949 from 0.8156 at 0.7812. However, as noted before, we'll be cautious on reversal signal as the cross meets next long term fibonacci level at 0.7782. On the upside, break of 0.7912 resistance should indicate short term bottoming and flip bias back to the upside for rebound.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 are treated as a long term consolidation pattern with fall from 0.9083 as the third leg. Strong support is expected inside 0.7693/8186 support zone to conclude the consolidation possibly near term 61.8% retracement of 0.6535 to 0.9799 at 0.7782. Hence, we focus on reversal signal during this stage of the decline. Break of 0.8156 resistance will indicate medium term reversal.
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.