EUR/GBP's recovery from 0.7811 continued last week but after all it's still staying well below 0.7962 resistance. Near term outlook remains bearish and larger decline from 0.9083 is expected to resume sooner or later. Below 0.7811 should turn bias back to the downside and send the cross through 0.7755 low to 0.7692 key support level next. Though, note again that break of 0.7962 resistance will now be an early sign of reversal and should turn focus back to 0.8152 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 are treated as a long term consolidation pattern with fall from 0.9083 as the third leg. Strong support is expected inside 0.7693/8186 support zone to conclude the consolidation. Hence, we'll continue to focus on reversal signal during this stage of the decline. Break of 0.8152 resistance will indicate medium term reversal. However, sustained break of 0.7693 will invalidate this view and could then bring deeper fall to 100% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8067 from 0.9083 at 0.7351 or even further to 0.6535/7258 support zone.

In the long term picture, the long term up trend now looks very vulnerable even though EUR/GBP is still holding on to 0.7693 key support and 61.8% retracement of 0.5680 to 0.9799 at 0.7740. Sustained break of 0.7693 will bring deeper fall back to 0.6535/7258 support zone.

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