Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
Forex Notes (2/23)*
* 114.00 was resistance than; a break above which targeted the 115.60 level.
- The EUR/JPY remains bullish. The daily chart shows the RSI tag 70 in January, fail to break below 40 (staying above 50 mostly), and returning above 60. A break above 70 again confirms bullish continuation, which the price action is suggesting already.
- The swing projections target 117.25 and 117.70.
- We do see resistance at 115.63, so before getting to the 117s, our near-term target above 114.00 should be 115.63. Let's see how the market reacts to this important resistance, the high of the ranging action that started May, 2010.
Elliott Wave Count
- The 4H chart shows the internals, and show the market could be completing a 5-wave rally. We would be in the wave (3) of wave V.
- The non-symmetry and extension of V in terms of both time and price makes this count suspect.
- Instead the alternative ABC count, where we are in the wave (3) of C is more likely.
- Given that the EUR/JPY has been ranging since May 2010, this count is more probable.
- This does not matter much as far as the bullish targets at the moment, because both can reach the 115.63, and would be valid after reaching 117.25 and 117.70.
- After that, if the market is bullish, we should see a weak throwback and a rally to move away from the May 2010 - March 2011 range towards the 120.00 area, a break above which would confirm the bullish impulse wave scenario, and suggest a long-term bullish outlook.
- Otherwise, we would just have a clear-out, and the throwback would bring the pair back to at least the middle of the range near 111.00.
Will EUR/JPY respect the 115.63 high? We would love to hear what you think.
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