For the first time Feb. 18th, the EURJPY is opening below the 20EMA on the daily charts.  If followed up with further selling, this pair is headed directly to the Daily Kijun whic it has only visited once in the last two months with a strong rejection.  A break of the Kijun could accelerate further losses for this pair as it ventures towards 125 and towards the Kumo top around 122 giving us a massive move.

Taking a look at the daily chart first, we can see how the pair has spent the last 3 days not being able to close above the Tenkan (white line) while being sandwiched between the Tenkan and 20EMA.  However we are opening Tokyo below it and with Momentum starting to show signs of weakness beyond its consolidation along with CCI posting its first negative reading since late Feb. this could be the beginning of some losses for this pair.  Candlesticks also suggest further downside as we’ve now had two reversal patterns with lower highs and lows each time with an Evening Star on April 7th along with an outside day just happening today.  The inability of the pair to break back above the kijun along with the reversal patterns supports the downside view.

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The intraday charts also suggest this looking at the 30m as the pair has yet to maintain any time since yesterday being above the 20EMA.  With the trajectory stable the selling pressure remains.  Any upside relief of this should test the cloud bottom which is descending.  If the Tenkan does a weak cross up over the Kijun, then follows it with a downward cross over the Kijun, this could be the start of another round of selling.  If CCI also decides to make new lows with the aforementioned selling, the the pair should make new lows and test the 130 handle and the daily Kijun which clocks in around 129.75.  A close below there will give technical players another reason to sell the pair.

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