EUR/JPY formed a temporary bottom at 103.88 last week and recovered. Such recovery might continue with 105.08 minor support intact, but even in case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 108.01 support turned resistance. Below 105.08 minor support will flip bias to the downside for 103.88. Break there will resume the whole decline from 123.31 to next medium term target at 102.42.

In the bigger picture, the break of 105.42 support indicates that whole down trend from 169.96 has resumed. As noted before, the up trend in weekly MACD is broken and EUR/JPY is possibly building up downside momentum again. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 102.42. And sustained break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. On the upside, break of 123.31 resistance is needed to signal trend reversal or we'll stay bearish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.

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