EUR/JPY dropped to as low as 102.20 last week and met mentioned medium term projection of 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 102.42 before forming a temporary low and recovers. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited well below 106.98 resistance and bring another fall. Below 102.20 should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to next near term target at 100% projection of 111.93 to 103.88 from 106.98 at 98.93
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and is building up downside momentum again. Sustained trading below 100 psychological level should pave the way to 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. On the upside, break of 123.31 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal or we'll stay bearish.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.