EUR/JPY formed a temporary bottom at 101.93 last week and recovered to 104.95. Such recovery is treated as consolidation in recent decline only. Hence, while another rise cannot be ruled out yet, even in that case, we'd expect upside to be limited by 106.98 resistance (50% retracement of 111.93 to 10.93 at 106.93) and bring fall resumption. Below 103.00 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 101.93 should target 100 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and is building up downside momentum again. Sustained trading below 100 psychological level should pave the way to 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. On the upside, break of 111.93 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.

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