EUR/JPY edged lower to 100.74 last week but lost momentum from there and recovered. Further rise could still be seen initially this week with 101.65 minor support intact. Nevertheless, we'd maintain that break of 104.92 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish. Below 101.65 should flip bias back to the downside and end EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level towards 200% projection of 123.31 to 113.41 from 117.74 at 97.94.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and is building up downside momentum again. Sustained trading below 100 psychological level should pave the way to 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. On the upside, break of 111.93 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.