EUR/JPY's rebound from 100.74 short term bottom extended further to as high as 107.44 last week and is pressing 55 days EMA. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for further rebound towards 38.2% retracement of 123.31 to 100.74 at 109.36. Nevertheless, we'd expect loss of momentum during the next rise and upside should be limited by 109.36 fibo level. On the downside, below 105.12 minor support will suggest that such rebound is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 100.74 low first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and is building up downside momentum again. Sustained trading below 100 psychological level should pave the way to 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. On the upside, break of 111.93 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.