EUR/JPY edged higher to 107.67 last week but failed to sustain above 55 days EMA and retreated. The development argues that rebound from 100.74 might be finished but that wasn't supported by deeper selloff yet. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'll wait for further development to affirm or invalidate this bearish case. On the downside, below 104.77 should affirm that rise from 100.74 is completed at 107.67 already and should flip bias back to the downside for retesting 100.74 low. On the upside, however, above 107.67 will target 38.2% retracement of 123.31 to 100.74 at 109.36 instead.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 100 psychological level should pave the way to 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. On the upside, break of 111.93 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.