EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

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EUR/JPY's rebound from 127.50 extended to as high as 133.57 but lost momentum ahead of 134.54 resistance and retreated. At this point, intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the downside, break of 131.77 minor support will indicate that rise from 127.50 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 126.88/127.50 support zone. Also note that this will also suggest that price actions from 126.88 are merely consolidations to the fall from 138.47 and such decline would be in favor to continue after completing the consolidation.

On the upside, above 133.57 will bring rise resumption to 134.54 resistance. Note that break of 134.54 will in turn indicate that whole fall from 138.47 has completed and the current rise from 127.50 could then extend further to upper end of medium term range near to 139.21 resistance.

In the bigger picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is still bounded in medium term range between 126.88 and 139.21 and outlook remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, a break of 126.88 support will revive that case that medium term rebound from 112.10 has completed at 139.21 already and down trend from 169.96 is resuming. In such case, we'd expect deeper fall to 112.10 and beyond to resume the long term down trend. On the upside, however, break of 134.54 resistance will revive that case that recent price actions are merely consolidations to medium term rise from 112.10 already and another high above 139.21 should be seen before EUR/JPY tops.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Subsequent price actions are either developing into resumption of the multi decade down trend from 285.56, or wide range corrective pattern. In either case, upside should be limited well below 169.96 high and we're expecting at least one more medium term fall after the current rise from 112.10 completes. The final structure of the rebound from 112.10 will provide more indication on whether a test on 88.96 low would be seen.

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY

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