EUR/JPY's decline from 134.46 continued last week and extended further to as low as 124.80. While the cross is losing a bit downside momentum, as see in mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, there is no clearer sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 124.35 support and then 100% projection of 138.47 to 126.88 from 134.36 at 122.77 next. On the upside, though, above 126.67 will suggest that a short term top might be in place and bring stronger rebound before staging another fall.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, medium term rebound from 112.10 might have completed at 139.21 already. Current decline is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend from 169.96. Sustained break of 124.35 support will further affirm this bearish case and target a new low below 112.10. On the upside, break of 134.36 resistance is needed to invalidate this bearish view and suggest that EUR/JPY is still in consolidation to rise from 112.10 only. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. The corrective nature of the rise from 112.10 to 139.21 argues that whole fall from 169.96 is note completed yet. A break below 112.10 low will confirm that whole fall from 169.96 has resumed and should then target 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.21 from 139.21 at 103.45 or further to 100 psychological support next.