EUR/JPY's fall from 111.57 extended further and the development argues that rebound from 100.74 is finished, just ahead of 55 weeks EMA and 50% retracement of 123.31 to 100.74 at 112.02. Some consolidations would be seen above 104.72 temporary low. But we'll now stay cautiously bearish as long as 108.24 resistance holds and expect further decline ahead. Below 104.72 will target a test on 100.74 low first. Though, break of 108.24 will dampen this bearish case and turn focus back to 111..57 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no signal of reversal yet with EUR/JPY staying below the falling 55 weeks EMA. Down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and should take out 100 psychological level eventually towards 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. Though, sustained break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 111.86) will raise the odd of trend reversal and will turn focus back to 123.31 resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.

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