EUR/JPY dropped further to as low as 103.50 last week before making a temporary low there and turned sideway. The development continued to affirm the case that whole rebound from 100.74 is finished at 111.57 already, just ahead of the falling 55 weeks EMA. Hence, while some more sideway trading could be seen, we'd expect upside to be limited below 106.45 resistance and bring another fall. Below 103.40 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 100.74 first. Break will confirm resumption of whole decline from 123.31 and should target 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 97.62 next.
In the bigger picture, there is no signal of reversal yet with EUR/JPY staying below the falling 55 weeks EMA. Down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and should take out 100 psychological level eventually towards 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. Though, sustained break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 111.56) will raise the odd of trend reversal and will turn focus back to 123.31 resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.