EUR/JPY's fall from 111.57 extended further to as low as 102.48 last week. The cross is losing some downside momentum with mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. But at this point,we'd still favor the bearish case that correction from 100.74 is finished at 111.57 and whole decline from 123.31 is set to resume soon. Near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 104.35 minor resistance holds and retest of 100.74 should be seen next. Break will target 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 97.62. Nonetheless, break of 104.35 will dampen this bearish view and would flip bias back to the upside to extend the consolidation/correction from 100.74.
In the bigger picture, there is no signal of reversal yet with EUR/JPY staying below the falling 55 weeks EMA. Down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and should take out 100 psychological level eventually towards 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. Though, sustained break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 111.59) will raise the odd of trend reversal and will turn focus back to 123.31 resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.