EUR/JPY's choppy consolidation from 120.69 continued last week and edged higher to 124.82. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more recovery cannot be ruled out. But even in case of another rise, we'd continue to expect strong resistance in 124.73/126.96 resistance zone to conclude the consolidation and bring fall resumption. Below 122.74 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 120.69 support first. Break there will indicate that whole fall from 134.36 has resumed and should target 161.8% projection of 138.47 to 126.88 from 134.36 at 115.60 next.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 112.10, which is treated as a correction to long term down trend from 2008 high of 169.96, should have completed at 139.21 already, after multiple failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA. Current decline is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend and should target a new low below 112.10. On the upside, break of 126.88 support turned resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Fall from 169.96 should develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. Current fall is likely the third wave and should extend beyond to 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.21 from 139.21 at 103.45 or further to 100 psychological support next.