EUR/JPY's rebound from 119.64 accelerated on Friday and the strong break of 122.60 resistance indicates that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. More rise could now be seen towards 125.22 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 125.26). But we'd expect strong resistance from there even if consolidation from 119.64 is going to extend further. On the downside, below 121.28 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 119.64 low.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 119.64 was stronger than expected, there is no change in the overall bearish view. Medium term rebound from 112.10, which is treated as a correction to long term down trend from 2008 high of 169.96, should have completed at 139.21 already, after multiple failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA. Current decline is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend and should target a new low below 112.10. On the upside, decisive break of 125.22 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Fall from 169.96 should develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. Current fall is likely the third wave and should extend beyond to 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.21 from 139.21 at 103.45 or further to 100 psychological support next.

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY