EUR/JPY dropped to as low as 103.00 last week but recovered ahead of 102.48. Initial bias is neutral this week. At this point, we;re still slightly favoring the case that recent decline from is ready to resume and break of 102.48 will confirm and target a test on 100.74 low first. However, above 104.51 will delay the bearish case and extend the consolidation pattern from 102.48 with another rise through 105.54 before fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, there is no signal of reversal yet with EUR/JPY staying below the falling 55 weeks EMA. Down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and should take out 100 psychological level eventually towards 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. Though, sustained break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 111.04) will raise the odd of trend reversal and will turn focus back to 123.31 resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.