EUR/JPY dropped to as low as 101.04 last week before forming a temporary low there and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some more consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 102.98 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 101.04 will extend the decline from 111.57 to 61.8% projection of 111.57 to 102.48 from 105.54 at 99.92, which is close to 100 psychological level. Also, sustained trading below 100 will confirm resumption of the larger down trend and should target 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 97.59.
In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY moved further away from the falling 55 weeks EMA and affirmed the case that downtrend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress. 100 psychological level should be taken out eventually towards 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. On the upside, break of 111.57 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal. Otherwise, we'll continue to stay bearish in the cross.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.