After edging lower to 121.05 last week, EUR/JPY rebounded strongly to as high as 124.45. The development suggests that consolidation from 119.64 is still in progress and initial bias remains mildly on the upside for further rise, possibly to 55 days EMA (now at 124.83). But at this point we'd still expect strong resistance from 125.22 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 125.26) to conclude the consolidation and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 122.97 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 121.05 will suggest that recent down trend is possibly resuming for another low below 119.64. However, note that sustained break of 125.22 cluster resistance will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 120.69, h: 119.64, rs: 121.05) and will argue that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in medium term and will turn focus to 126.88 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, there is still no change in our bearish view. That is, medium term rebound from 112.10, which is treated as a correction to long term down trend from 2008 high of 169.96, should have completed at 139.21 already, after multiple failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA. Recent decline is expected to resume sooner or later to a new low below 112.10. However, note that decisive break of 125.22 cluster resistance will argue that recent fall might have completed already. Further break of 126.88 support turned resistance will indicate that medium term rise from 112.10 might be still in progress for another high above 139.21 before completion.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Fall from 169.96 should develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. Current fall is likely the third wave and should extend beyond to 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.21 from 139.21 at 103.45 or further to 100 psychological support next.

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY