EUR/JPY soared to as high as 127.88 before retreating mildly. While the cross lost some upside momentum, another rise is still expected as long as 126.86 minor support holds. Current rise from 121.05 should now target 161.8% projection of 119.64 to 125.19 from 121.05 at 130.03 next. On the downside, below 126.86 will suggest that a temporary top is in place and bring retreat, probably to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 125.41). But break of 121.05 support is needed to confirm that rise from 119.64 has completed. Otherwise, another rally is still in favor after pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 126.88 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 138.47 to 119.64 at 126.83) indicates that choppy fall from 139.21 has likely completed at 119.64 already. The corrective structure in turns argue that whole rally from 2009 low of 112.10 is still in progress. Sustained trading above 134.36 resistance will further affirm this case and pave the way to a new high above 139.21. On the downside, break of 121.05 support is needed to revive the case that EUR/JPY has topped out in medium term. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Fall from 169.96 should develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10. Second wave from 118.10 might still be in progress but after all, we'd expect another long term fall to 118.10 and beyond after the third wave starts.

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY