EUR/JPY's down trend continued last week and dropped to as low as 97.82. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 97.62. Break will target next key projection level of 100% at 89.00. On the upside, above 98.84 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 101.04 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's downside momentum is accelerating with a break of lower trend line in weekly chart and with weekly MACD staying below signal line Current fall from 123.31 is part of the downside from 2008 high of 169.96 and should target 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52. At this point, we'd anticipate strong support there to bring at least a rebound attempt, as it's close to 88.96 all time low as well as the above mentioned 100% near term projection target at 89.00. Though, a break of 111.57 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal. Otherwise, we'll continue to stay bearish in the cross even in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.