EUR/JPY pulled back to as low as 123.41 last week but was supported well above 121.05 support and rebounded. Consolidation from 127.88 might still continue and initial bias is neutral this week. But after all, note that rise from 119.64 is still in favor to continue as long as 121.05 support holds. Above 127.88 will target 100% projection of 121.05 to 127.88 from 123.41 at 130.24 next. On the downside, note that firm break of 121.05 will confirm that rise from 119.64 is finished and the three wave corrective structure will in turn indicate that medium term fall is still in progress for another low below 119.64.

In the bigger picture, choppy fall from 139.21 has completed completed at 119.64 after completing a head and shoulder bottom pattern. The corrective structure of the fall from 139.21 to 119.64 in turn argues that whole rally from 2009 low of 112.10 is still in progress. Sustained trading above 134.36 resistance will further affirm this case and pave the way to a new high above 139.21. On the downside, break of 121.05 support, however, will revive that case that EUR/JPY has already topped out in medium term at 139.21 and will pave the wave for another low below 112.10 instead.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Fall from 169.96 should develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10. Second wave from 118.10 might still be in progress but after all, we'd expect another long term fall to 118.10 and beyond after the third wave starts.

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY