EUR/JPY's rebound from 97.03 short term bottomed extended to as high as 102.20 last week before making a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is mildly on the downside for 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 100.51) and below. Break of 99.31 support will indicate that corrective rebound from 97.03 is finished and recent fall from 123.31 is possibly resuming for another low below 97.03. Nonetheless, before a break of 99.31, rebound from 97.03 could still extend and above 102.20 will target falling trend line resistance (now at 106.45).
In the bigger picture, current fall from 123.31 is part of the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 and should target 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52. At this point, we'd anticipate strong support there to bring at least a rebound attempt, as it's close to 88.96 all time low as well as100% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 89.00. Though, a break of 111.57 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll continue to stay bearish in the cross even in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.