EUR/JPY's rebound from 97.03 resumed last week and reached as high as 103.28 before losing momentum and forming a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But another rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 101.65 minor support holds. Above 103.38 will target 100% projection of 97.03 to 102.20 from 99.24 at 105.49. At this point, such rebound is still viewed as a correction only. Below 101.65 will argue that such corrective rise is finished and flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 99.24 will confirm and should send EUR/JPY through 97.03 low.
In the bigger picture, fall from 123.31 is part of the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 and should target 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52. At this point, we'd anticipate strong support there to bring at least a rebound attempt, as it's close to 88.96 all time low as well as100% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 89.00. Though, a break of 111.57 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll continue to stay bearish in the cross even in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.