EUR/JPY dipped to 109.52 last week but after all, it's still staying in range of 108.06/114.13. Initial bias is mildly on the downside for 108.06 this week and break will confirm down trend resumption 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 next. On the upside, in case of recovery, we'd expect upside to be limited below 113.40 resistance and bring fall resumption finally. However, note that a break of 113.40/114.13 will indicate that EUR/JPY has completed a head and shoulder bottom reversal pattern and will turn outlook bullish for much stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, fall from 139.21 is treated as resumption of long term down trend from 2007 high of 169.96 and should target 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 which is close to 100 psychological level. Though, we'd expect strong support between 2000 low of 88.96 and 100 psychological level to contain downside and bring reversal. On the upside, break of 119.64 support turned resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. It should develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. The third falling leg is now in progress but would be contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on this this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.