After edging higher to 109.83 last week EUR/JPY formed a short term top there and turned into sideway consolidation. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidation could be seen. But downside is expected to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 99.24 to 109.83 at 105.78 and bring rally resumption. Above 109.83 will extend the rally from 97.03 to 111.57 resistance. As noted before, fall from 123.31 has likely finished on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 111.57 will affirm this bullish case and target 123.31 key resistance next.
In the bigger picture, the case of trend reversal in EUR/JPY is starting to build up and 97.03 should be a medium term bottom. Break of 111.57 will affirm this case and should at least push EUR/JPY for a test on 123.31 resistance. Break there will argue that whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is completed and reversed. Though, failure to take out 123.31 and reversal from there will likely bring some sideway trading between 97.03/123.31 in medium term .
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.