EUR/JPY rose to as high as 109.99 last week and the break of 109.83 resistance indicates that recent rally from 97.03 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally is now expected to 111.57 key resistance next. As noted before, fall from 123.31 has likely finished on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 111.57 will affirm this bullish case and target 123.31 key resistance next. On the downside, below 108.58 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 105.64 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the case of trend reversal in EUR/JPY is starting to build up and 97.03 should be a medium term bottom. Break of 111.57 will affirm this case and should at least push EUR/JPY for a test on 123.31 resistance. Break there will argue that whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is completed and reversed. Though, failure to take out 123.31 and reversal from there will likely bring some sideway trading between 97.03/123.31 in medium term.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.