EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | March 24 2012 8:29 AM

EUR/JPY rose further to as high as 111.43 last week but failed strong resistance ahead of 111.57 and formed a short term top there. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for extending the pull back from 111.43. But downside si expected to be contained by 105.64 support and bring rebound. Rally from 97.03 is expected to resume sooner or later. Decisive break of 111.57 resistance will confirm that fall from 123.31 has completed and should target a test on this key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the case of trend reversal in EUR/JPY is starting to build up and 97.03 should be a medium term bottom. Break of 111.57 will affirm this case and should at least push EUR/JPY for a test on 123.31 resistance. Break there will argue that whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is completed and reversed. Though, failure to take out 123.31 and reversal from there will likely bring some sideway trading between 97.03/123.31 in medium term.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.

EUR/JPY