EUR/JPY stayed in sideway consolidation below 111.43 last week and outlook remained unchanged. Initial bias is neutral this week. As consolidation extends, another fall cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 105.64 support and bring rebound. Rally from 97.03 is expected to resume sooner or later. Decisive break of 111.57 resistance will confirm that fall from 123.31 has completed and should target a test on this key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is at least in place at 97.03 in EUR/JPY with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Break of 111.57 resistance will affirm the case of trend reversal and should at least push EUR/JPY for a test on 123.31 resistance. Break there will argue that whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is completed and reversed. Though, failure to take out 123.31 and reversal from there will likely bring some sideway trading between 97.03/123.31 in medium term.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. There are signs that such corrective fall is finished at 97.03, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. The eventual structure of the rebound from 97.03 would help determine how far it could go.